Like the UK, Latin America has suffered greatly during the pandemic – perhaps even more so. The World Bank estimates that regional GDP may slip by as much as 8%, with more than four million…
Election Season in Latin America
From a distance, Latin America shows a tempting array of positive indicators. In most of the region’s economies, the painful slowdown triggered by the 2014 collapse in commodity prices has largely ended. Economic growth across…
February: aggressive US Treasury selloff is historically a buying opportunity For Professional Investors Only
People talk of the 2013 ‘taper tantrum’ as the modern-day equivalent of the enormous 1994 bond rout, where both occasions saw the Federal Reserve unexpectedly communicate a significant change in monetary policy. But the Treasury…
From little acorns
Venture Capital Trusts or VCTs are becoming increasingly popular, with demand boosted by valuable incentives for investors in these tax shelters and tighter restrictions elsewhere. However, smaller companies and start-ups held within this type of…
Surely Not Straight Up Again?
Equity markets, having reached short term oversold levels that even we identified last week, have rallied very smartly in the last week or so. This rally is very similar to other V-shaped rallies we have…
Week in Review: US bonds: shaken and stirred
Higher US inflation sparked a sell-off in bonds this week. Investors’ fear of an overheating US economy increased this week as the US government reported that consumer prices rose more quickly in January than analysts…
The Recent Market Downturn
Our Initial Thoughts The market sell-off that began in earnest on Friday 2 February appears initially to have been an adjustment of investor sentiment. Particularly since the passage of significant tax cuts in the US…
Shifting Sands
Alex Scott, Chief Strategist, Seven Investment Management (7IM) We suspected that a rise in market volatility was likely in 2018 – but of course, no-one knew how or when it would play out. That risk…
Consider Last Week’s Correction a Clear Warning
We suspect that most experienced investors fully expected a correction in equity markets at some point (markets don’t go up in a straight line forever), however the ferocity and damage caused by the recent sell…
Week in Review: Meltdown!
It’s been a while, but share-price volatility is back – and how! This week, the world’s main equity markets plunged sharply on Monday, bounced briefly mid-week, then slumped again on Thursday. The S&P 500’s 4.1%…
A Reality Check
Alex Scott, Chief Strategist, Seven Investment Management (7IM) For the first time in over a year, markets have fallen sharply. Keeping a cool head about markets is important when others are panicking. We believe that…
Small is mighty
Europe became the flavour du jour As global economies emerged from a searing financial crisis at the turn of the decade, the US and UK seemed to pull ahead of their European cousins. Earnings there…
Equity Markets Finally Noticing the Price Action in Bond and FX Markets
We have been highlighting, for a number of weeks, the prospect of higher bond yields and suggesting that equities should eventually adjust to the downside in such an outcome. And for weeks, we looked like…
Week in Review: The hangover kicks in
Many of us are celebrating the end of what has been a bleak and joyless month. Pay day has come around at last and it’s time to dispense with ‘dry January’, or forget about those…
‘Yield beta’ – perhaps the most important consideration if you own any inflation-linked bonds For Professional Investors Only
Many investors have exposure to inflation-linked bonds, whether it’s within a diversified fixed income portfolio or a multi asset portfolio. The difficulty is that inflation-linked bonds and conventional bonds behave differently. Inflation-linked bonds provide you…
The End of the Dollar Standard Would be a Big Deal
We’ve all seen charts similar to the chart below, showing US bond yields, and the extraordinarily orderly decline in yields over the last 30 years or so. On the chart, we have marked the trend…
Week in Review: A shared future
All eyes were on Davos, a small town in the Swiss Alps, as world leaders, business people and other VIPs congregated to share perspectives on the theme of “Creating a Shared Future in a Fractured…